Investigators have developed equations to predict the lifetime incidence of kidney failure according to a donor’s baseline demographic and health characteristics before kidney donation. Data from a study on the equations were presented at ASN Kidney Week 2015.

The team, led by Morgan Grams, MD, from the CKD Prognosis Consortium, found that the predicted pre-donation lifetime incidence of end-stage renal disease varied by age, race, and sex: 2.7%, 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.6% in 20-year-old black men, black women, white men, and white women, respectively, and 0.6%, 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2% in the corresponding 60-year-old candidates. The lifetime incidence of ESRD was higher with additional risk factors, particularly low kidney function. The predicted lifetime incidence of ESRD before donation was <1% in 88% of recent U.S. donors.

“We suggest consideration of pre-donation lifetime ESRD risk in the evaluation and counseling of potential living kidney donors,” the authors concluded. “Our equations estimate a person’s lifetime incidence of ESRD in the absence of donation according to multiple demographic and clinical characteristics.”